Visions 2200 - A Perspective on the Future

Seas Rising

Global Warming is one of the most significant environmental issues of the early 21st Century. UNEP/GRID-Arendal has a long experience in communicating the causes and impacts of climate change and global warming as shown in this well illustrated website. NASA in 2010 pulled together a collection of videos, articles and imagery designed to help tell the story of our warming world.

Sea Level Rise

Sea-level rise from the melting of polar ice sheets would be one of the most significant effects of global warming. Projecting the extent of such a rise 200 years in the future is difficult, given the variables involved. However, each new scientific discovery points to an increased rate of glacier melt and consequent sea level rise. The Arctic impact assessment is a start on such an analysis.

Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of around 130,000 years ago associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable.

The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought. A scenario contemplating a combination of melting from the Greenland ice sheet as well as that of West Antarctica could bring about a sea level rise of 6 meters or more.

The satellite images below demonstrate the potential impact on five (5) different coastal areas of a 6 meter (20 feet) rise in sea level. The scenario assumes a failure of leading industrial nations, such as the United States, and emerging industrial giants, such as India and China, to seriously reduce emissions of the "greenhouse gases" linked to global warming.

Changing coastlines worldwide due to alternative future sea level changes can be researched on the internet. One site, flood.firetree.net enables the viewer to experiment and view the effect of alternative sea level rises using elevation data provided by NASA. The impact of rising seas in the San Francisco Bay Area was presented in a 2007 public radio report.

Bay Area Today
The impact of such a sea level rise varies significantly among the cities along San Francisco Bay. San Francisco because it rises steeply from the Bay, except where historical bay fill has occurred, is little affected. Foster City, since it was built on bay fill, disappears completely. East Palo Alto, except for a possible narrow sliver along its western edge, also disappears. Alameda becomes a much smaller island and Richmond is split by a new strait connecting the southern and northern reaches of the Bay. The former Sacrament/San Joaquin Delta and surrounding portions of the Central Valley become a new bay or sea tentatively identified as Sacramento Bay. The cities of Tracy, Manteca, Stockton, and Sacramento would lie along the marshes bordering this new bay. More than half of Stockton would disappear beneath the waves.

Florida Today
Florida gets really devastated by the envisioned sea level change. All or the major part of most of its coastal cities sink beneath the waves. Miami ends up about 110 kilometers (70 miles) out in the ocean. Key West finds itself even further out to sea. Even inland Orlando is impacted by an arm of the sea.

Louisiana Today
The Mississippi Delta and the Gulf Coast of the United States would be inundated by a 6 meter rise in sea level. The only way New Orleans could be saved is with a strong levee immediately surrounding the city which would become an island some 50 kilometers (30 miles) out into the Gulf.

China - Yellow Sea Coast Today

China - Yellow Sea Coast After 6 meter (20 feet) rise in sea level
The most impacted areas of China would be around the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea coast to the south. This is the location of some of China's largest cities.

Ganges Delta Region in India & Bangladesh Today

Ganges Delta Region After 6 meter (20 feet) rise in sea level
The Bay of Bengal along the coast of India and Bangladesh would be drastically affected by sea level rise - with the Ganges Delta and its population of millions most heavily impacted.

Solutions

Two key sources of global warming are vehicle and power plant "greenhouse gas" emissions. Emission reductions from each will require improved energy efficiency and the discovery of new emission free and inexpensive energy sources. Emission reduction at fossil fuel power plants will require the discovery of economical means of CO2 sequestration.

The U.S. is currently the largest greenhouse gas emitter, but China and India are huge economies that are growing more rapidly. China and India, overall, are even less energy efficient than the U.S. Vehicle energy efficiency is critical because of the rapidly growing global number of vehicles. There should be a tremendous world market for improved energy efficiency.

It is false to say that hydrogen technology will solve the vehicle fuel problem so long as (1) an economical means of separating hydrogen from water eludes us and (2) fossil fuels are the primary source of energy to generate that separation. (The only emission from the burning of hydrogen fuel is water.)

New and improved sources of power such as wind, solar, and fusion, which do not require the burning of fossil fuel and the emission of greenhouse gases, may be a solution. To be viable, such alternative energy sources need to compete in efficiency with fossil fuel. If competitive in cost and efficiency, they could eliminate the power plant emissions and provide an alternative source of energy to make hydrogen fuel.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess and understand the implications of information relevant to climate change. A summary of its fourth 5 year assessment report is available. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment is an international project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) to assess the impact of climate change on the Arctic. The Arctic Council is a high-level intergovernmental forum. The members are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States of America. IASC is a non-governmental organization that facilitates cooperation in all aspects of arctic research in all countries engaged in arctic research and in all areas of the arctic region.
 

H Graem © 2006