Visions 2200 - A Perspective on the Future

World Situation

The existence of large animal species is threatened throughout the world. Large intact wilderness are under siege. The Wildlife Conservation Society has identified 569 wild places, representing the largest wild areas in each of the biomes of the world. In the book, Wilderness: Earth's Last Wild Places, the authors' criteria for wilderness are at a broad, biome level and take into consideration size, intactness of natural systems, human population density, and biodiversity. The map below summarizes their findings.

Regarding the status of natural ecosystems and habitats worldwide, the Nature Conservancy is publishing The Atlas of Global Conservation on Earth Day 2010. The atlas brings together such information as:

  • where animal populations are concentrated,
  • which species are in imminent danger of extinction,
  • where forests are disappearing most rapidly, and
  • where nature is thriving.

The situation regarding megafauna and wilderness by continent is summarized below:

Africa

Africa is the home of the great predominance of megafauna that have survived into the present age. It also contains many of the most threatened of these same species. To limit these remaining species to the African continent increases the probability of their extinction.

For this reason, creation of new wilderness homes in the Americas (continents bereft of megafauna due to the great extinction of some 10,000 years ago) for these species makes less likely that disaster on one continent will wipe them out. The alternative continent of Australia is home to the marsupials which could well be out competed by these African animals and Antartica is too cold.

Asia

Except for Africa, Asia contains the greatest number of surviving megafauna species. The Asian Elephant herd in the image to the left resides in an Indian National Park.

With the great populations of the southern and eastern parts of this continent, the pressure on surviving species has been great. With the breakup of the Soviet Union, hunting has had an increasing impact on the large species surviving in the more sparsely populated north.

Although remaining natural landscapes are sparse, creation of protected wilderness lands in the warmer parts of Asia is crucial. As with Africa, relocation of members of these threatened species to the Americas will diminish the the probability that they will be wiped out through extinction in Asia.

Given the smaller human population, creation of wilderness areas in the north within the bounds of the former Soviet Union may be more feasible. Here we may even consider bringing back lost pleistocene species through cloning of frozen remains or modifying existing species through genetic manipulation to better survive in colder climes.

Europe

Europe is the most densely populated of all the continents. Like the Americas, most of its megafauna has become extinct. There have been attempts to recreate the Tarpan, the European wild horse, by breeding individuals who closely resemble the phenotype of the original animal. Two examples are the Konik horses of the Netherlands (portrayed in the image to the left) and the Heck horse of Germany. While genetically not the same animal as the original Tarpan, their outward appearance and manner is similar.

Unlike North America, there is little sparsely populated land remaining in Europe in which wilderness of adequate size could be created. The principal exception to this situation is eastern Europe where protected wilderness lands could be realistically envisioned. The lands downwind of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, where a new wilderness has been spontaneously created, is one such example.

North America

North America contains some of the most scenic and varied temperate habitat in the world. It ranges from arctic tundra to subtropical forest. The continent includes the uncommon cool rainforest of the North Pacific coast, California's coastal Mediterranean land, the desert canyons of the Colorado Plateau, the high plains and prairies, and the vast forests covering much of the land east of the Mississippi River. The bison, most associated with the high plains, is shown to the right.

Of all the continents, the wilderness envisioned for North America is the most extensive. This is not because it is more deserving, but because we are most familiar with its habitat types and existing studies provide a solid foundation for wilderness location.

Although much of the eastern forest has regenerated in the past 100 years and many scenic areas are preserved in National Parks, the habitat is continually threaten by the sprawling and haphazard growth generated by the most powerful economy on earth. Significantly, no habitat type exists in a single protected contiguous area of a size sufficient to protect the viability of the resident plant and animal species.

Oceana

Oceana is defined here as including the mini-continents of Antarctica and Australia as well as most of the ocean islands not usually associated with a particular continent. Antarctica, with no permanent human inhabitants, is primarily a wilderness today. The only issue is whether its wildlife should be augmented with certain endangered species from the Arctic, such as polar bears and certain whales.

Australia has a population of about 20 million on a continent about the size of the mainland United States of America. Creation of future wilderness is clearly feasible. The fauna of that wilderness should probably be limited to marsupials native to Australia and nearby islands. The largest, the Kangaroo, is pictured to the left. Without careful evaluation, importing of more competitive mammals from other continents could be fatal to this relatively ancient mammal group.

South America

South America lost most of its megafauna about the same time and probably due to similar causes as did North America. The habitat also has a breadth similar to that continent, with an emphasis in different areas. The guanaco, a relative of the camel, and native to both the altiplano and pampas, is shown to the right.

This continent contains the largest tropical rain forest in the world. It also contains deserts, plains and tundra environments, although at a much smaller scale than North America.

The Amazon rain forest is currently under attack by timber cutters, ranchers and poor farmers. I personally experienced the negative impact on abundance of larger wildlife inhabitants due to hunting pressures in a 'protected' area.

Survival of linked rain forest wilderness extending over a wide assortment of tropical habitats and incorporating endangered species from the tropical areas of Africa and Asia is envisioned.

 

H Graem © 2006